카오스이론을 이용한 일유출량 자료의 분석 및 예측에 관한 연구
A Study on The Forecasting and Analysis of a Daily Streamflow by using Chaotic Theory
- 주제(KDC) 530.4
- 발행기관 東新大學校 工業技術硏究所
- 발행년도 2004
- 총서유형 Journal
- 본문언어 한국어
초록/요약
This research studied about chaos characteristics analysis and forecasting in Youngsanpho. To find chaotic characteristic, daily runoff data of Youngsanpho were analyzed by correlation dimension method and lyapunov exponent method. To forecast daily streamflow, this study used the model joined Genetic Algorithm and Fuzzy System. So, we found the match valid out through the comparison of the observed values. From chaos analysis, chaotic characteristics were found in daily streamflow of Youngsanpho, and discovered consistently attracter in moving average data when it's reconstruction of Phase Space. Resulting from forecasting by using GA-Fuzzy System, short-term forecasting was excellent but long-term forecasting was impossible.
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